Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 26, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4687
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 2
WN 4687 · LAS → DAL
departs 6:41 PM PT · arrives 11:23 PM CT
Forecast issued Sat 5:00 AM ET · 66h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 11/1 69%
Mon 11/2
Tue 11/3 34%
Wed 11/4 33%
Thu 11/5 43%
Fri 11/6 50%
Odds over time
Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?
53%
chance · ±6 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
53%
Leave 15+ late
54%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed – in 24h
–
53%
Yes 53%
No 47%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 47% · changed – in 24h
–
54%
Yes 54%
No 46%
Arrive at DAL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to DAL?
On time or early
45%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
20%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Gusts to 32 kt forecast at DAL that day
↑
6pm departures from LAS are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DAL (destination)
Gusts 32 kt Ceiling 3,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.11 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.