WN 470 · BHM → MCO

took off 7:25 AM CT · expected to land 9:32 AM ET (scheduled 7:10 AM CT → 9:53 AM ET)

Forecast issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to MCO?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 26 kt, cloud base down to 1,300 ft, 0.7 in of rain forecast at MCO that day

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ MCO is busy at that time

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 7am departures from BHM are usually not late

Weather at each end

BHM (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling3,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MCO (destination) Gusts26 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.39 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 470 · BHM → MCO

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCO?