Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 26, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 471
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 2
WN 471 · SAN → SEA
departs 5:58 PM PT · arrives 8:47 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 3:00 AM ET · 67h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 11/2
Thu 11/5 58%
Fri 11/6 63%
Odds over time
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±5 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed – in 24h
–
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed – in 24h
–
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at SEA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SEA?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 37% of the time recently
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Cloud base down to 400 ft forecast at SEA that day
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 9,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SEA (destination)
Gusts 4 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.