Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 26, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4729
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 2
WN 4729 · AUS → TPA
departs 8:20 PM CT · arrives 11:56 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 3:00 AM ET · 67h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 11/2
Thu 11/5 46%
Fri 11/6 39%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed – in 24h
–
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed – in 24h
–
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
8pm departures from AUS are often late
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip none
TPA (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.22 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.