Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 26, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4735
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 2 Tomorrow
WN 4735 · BNA → PHX
departs 10:24 PM CT · arrives 1:18 AM MT
Forecast issued Sun 4:00 AM ET · 43h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 11/2
Thu 11/5 32%
Fri 11/6 33%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
38%
chance · ±4 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
38%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
7.0d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
10pm departures from BNA are often late
↑
Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
PHX (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 6,333 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.11 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.