WN 4744 · MCO → PIT

departs 6:41 AM ET · arrives 9:07 AM ET

Your aircraft is N8650F (B738), coming in as WN 4171 from STL: landed 11:43 PM ET.

Forecast issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at PIT more than 15 minutes late?

54% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PIT?

On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 26 kt, cloud base down to 1,300 ft, 0.7 in of rain forecast at MCO that day

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ MCO is busy at that time

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 6am departures from MCO are usually not late

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts26 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.52 in

PIT (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4744 · MCO → PIT

Odds over time

How late will it get to PIT?