Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 26, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4786
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 2 Tomorrow
WN 4786 · DEN → PHX
departs 9:55 PM MT · arrives 11:54 PM MT
Forecast issued Sun 5:00 AM ET · 43h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 11/2
Thu 11/5 36%
Fri 11/6 41%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
58%
chance · ±12 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
58%
Leave 15+ late
67%
Arrive 1h+ late
22%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
7.0d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
58%
Yes 58%
No 42%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
67%
Yes 67%
No 33%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
41%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
20%
1–2 hours late
17%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 43 kt, cloud base down to 1,100 ft, visibility down to 0.8 mi forecast at DEN that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 43 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 0.8 mi Precip 0.15 in
PHX (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 5,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.07 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.