WN 484 · BNA → RDU

took off 6:39 AM CT · expected to land 8:47 AM ET (scheduled 6:30 AM CT → 9:11 AM ET)

Forecast issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to RDU?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ BNA is busy at that time

↑ This flight has been late 20% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Arrivals into RDU at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

BNA (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.02 in

RDU (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 484 · BNA → RDU

Odds over time

How late will it get to RDU?