Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 26, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4911
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 2
WN 4911 · MCO → RIC
departs 8:52 PM ET · arrives 11:00 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 2:00 AM ET · 68h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 11/2
Thu 11/5 49%
Fri 11/6 44%
Odds over time
Arrive at RIC more than 15 minutes late?
50%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
50%
Leave 15+ late
51%
Arrive 1h+ late
15%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RIC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed – in 24h
–
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed – in 24h
–
51%
Yes 51%
No 49%
Arrive at RIC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to RIC?
On time or early
50%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
8pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RIC
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 1.38 in
RIC (destination)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.