Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 26, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 493
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 2 Tomorrow
WN 493 · PHX → LAX
departs 10:28 PM MT · arrives 10:55 PM PT
Forecast issued Sun 6:00 AM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 11/2
Thu 11/5 48%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±4 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
48%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
7.0d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 45% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Arrive at LAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAX?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This flight has been late 29% of the time recently
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 6,333 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.11 in
LAX (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.