Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 26, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4964
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 2
WN 4964 · STL → MCI
departs 9:44 PM CT · arrives 11:01 PM CT
Forecast issued Sat 5:00 AM ET · 67h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 11/1 35%
Mon 11/2
Tue 11/3 25%
Wed 11/4 32%
Thu 11/5 31%
Fri 11/6 32%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed – in 24h
–
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 36% · changed – in 24h
–
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at MCI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCI?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 33 kt, 0.4 in of rain forecast at MCI that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
9pm departures from STL are often late
↓
MCI usually runs smoothly
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
STL (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip none
MCI (destination)
Gusts 33 kt Ceiling 3,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.44 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.