Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 26, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 8507
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 2
WN 8507 · PAE → DEN
departs 9:32 PM PT · arrives 1:20 AM MT
Forecast issued Sun 1:00 AM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 11/2
Wed 11/4 31%
Sat 11/7 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±8 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
7.0d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave PAE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at DEN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to DEN?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 43 kt, cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at DEN that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PAE
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
PAE (origin)
Gusts 3 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
DEN (destination)
Gusts 43 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.15 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.