Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 26, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 856
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 2 Tomorrow
WN 856 · MCO → SRQ
departs 9:55 PM ET · arrives 10:51 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 1:00 AM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 11/2
Thu 11/5 36%
Fri 11/6 34%
Sat 11/7 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at SRQ more than 15 minutes late?
58%
chance · ±0 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
58%
Leave 15+ late
54%
Arrive 1h+ late
23%
Cancelled
5%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SRQ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
58%
Yes 58%
No 42%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 34% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
54%
Yes 54%
No 46%
Arrive at SRQ more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
How late will it get to SRQ?
On time or early
40%
15–30 min late
23%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
5%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 26 kt, cloud base down to 1,300 ft, 0.7 in of rain forecast at MCO that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
9pm departures from MCO are often late
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.66 in
SRQ (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.31 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.