Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 26, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 9002
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 2
WN 9002 · DEN → MTJ
departs 6:21 PM MT · arrives 7:26 PM MT
Forecast issued Sat 1:00 AM ET · 68h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at MTJ more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±9 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
61%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MTJ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed – in 24h
–
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed – in 24h
–
61%
Yes 61%
No 39%
Arrive at MTJ more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MTJ?
On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
28%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 46 kt forecast at DEN that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
6pm departures from DEN are often late
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
MTJ usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 46 kt Ceiling 1,400 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.02 in
MTJ (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 0.7 mi Precip 0.37 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.