YX 4335 · JFK → CVG

took off 2:12 PM ET · expected to land 3:37 PM ET (scheduled 1:53 PM ET → 4:06 PM ET)

Forecast issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at CVG more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to CVG?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1pm departures from JFK are often late

↑ This flight has been late 20% of the time recently

↑ JFK is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

JFK (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

CVG (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4335 · JFK → CVG

Odds over time

How late will it get to CVG?