YX 4338 · RDU → BNA

departs 5:11 PM ET · arrives 6:05 PM CT

Your aircraft is N416YX (E75L), coming in as YX 4403 from ORD: landed 4:08 PM ET.

Forecast issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to BNA?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into BNA at that hour are often late

↑ 5pm departures from RDU are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

RDU (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

BNA (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling2,900 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.41 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4338 · RDU → BNA

Odds over time

How late will it get to BNA?