YX 4343 · JFK → BNA

took off 1:31 PM ET · expected to land 2:14 PM CT (scheduled 1:17 PM ET → 2:45 PM CT)

Forecast issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to BNA?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into BNA at that hour are often late

↑ 1pm departures from JFK are often late

↑ This flight has been late 18% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

JFK (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BNA (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4343 · JFK → BNA

Odds over time

How late will it get to BNA?