YX 4356 · JFK → BNA

took off 4:15 PM ET · expected to land 4:59 PM CT (scheduled 3:53 PM ET → 5:20 PM CT)

Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to BNA?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into BNA at that hour are often late

↑ 3pm departures from JFK are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

JFK (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BNA (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling2,900 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.41 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4356 · JFK → BNA

Odds over time

How late will it get to BNA?