YX 4364 · GSP → LGA

departs 6:13 PM ET · arrives 8:21 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±0 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 38% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at GSP

Weather at each end

GSP (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling2,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LGA (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4364 · GSP → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?