YX 4372 · SDF → PHL

took off 11:11 AM ET · expected to land 12:47 PM ET (scheduled 11:02 AM ET → 1:20 PM ET)

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

0% chance · ±0 pts +18 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PHL?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2.5 mi forecast at SDF that day

↑ PHL is prone to delays

↑ PHL is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

SDF (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.13 in

PHL (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4372 · SDF → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?