YX 4383 · LGA → STL

departs 6:56 PM ET · arrives 8:43 PM CT

Your aircraft is N120HQ (E75S), coming in as YX 4574 from GSO: landed 6:07 PM ET.

Forecast issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?

100% chance · ±0 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to STL?

On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 6pm departures from LGA are often late

↑ Arrivals into STL at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

STL (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility3 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4383 · LGA → STL

Odds over time

How late will it get to STL?