YX 4412 · LGA → DTW

departs 4:44 PM ET · arrives 6:47 PM ET

Your aircraft is N410YX (E75S), coming in as YX 4761 from RDU: landed 3:22 PM ET.

Forecast issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±0 pts −12 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to DTW?

On time or early
93%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from LGA are often late

↑ This flight has been late 31% of the time recently

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DTW (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4412 · LGA → DTW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DTW?