YX 4422 · ILM → LGA

departs 11:02 AM ET · arrives 12:57 PM ET

Your aircraft is N432YX (E75L), coming in as YX 4422 from LGA: landed 10:55 AM ET.

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

70% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 35% of the time recently

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ LGA is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

ILM (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LGA (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4422 · ILM → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?