YX 4435 · CMH → ORD

departs 8:23 PM ET · arrives 8:55 PM CT

Forecast issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

40% chance · ±0 pts +13 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
59%
15–30 min late
24%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CMH

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

CMH (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4435 · CMH → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?