YX 4437 · ORD → MEM

departs 3:40 PM CT · arrives 5:34 PM CT

Your aircraft is N404YX (E75S), coming in as YX 4741 from PWM: landed 2:03 PM CT.

Forecast issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?

44% chance · ±0 pts −10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to MEM?

On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 3pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↑ This flight has been late 18% of the time recently

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.03 in

MEM (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4437 · ORD → MEM

Odds over time

How late will it get to MEM?