YX 4461 · STL → LGA

departs 4:05 PM CT · arrives 7:50 PM ET

Your aircraft is N432YX (E75L), coming in as YX 4461 from LGA: in the air, landing about 3:13 PM CT, 47 min before departure.

Forecast issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±0 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↑ 4pm departures from STL are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

STL (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.02 in

LGA (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4461 · STL → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?