YX 4478 · ATL → LGA

took off 12:25 PM ET · expected to land 2:10 PM ET (scheduled 12:07 PM ET → 2:30 PM ET)

Forecast issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to LGA?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↑ ATL is busy at that time

↑ LGA is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ATL

Weather at each end

ATL (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling1,400 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LGA (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4478 · ATL → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?