YX 4507 · LGA → RIC

departs 4:34 PM ET · arrives 6:07 PM ET

Your aircraft is N654RW (E170), coming in as YX 4623 from YYZ: landed 2:56 PM ET.

Forecast issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at RIC more than 15 minutes late?

6% chance · ±0 pts −11 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to RIC?

On time or early
95%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from LGA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into RIC at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

RIC (destination) Gusts4 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4507 · LGA → RIC

Odds over time

How late will it get to RIC?