YX 4518 · ORD → MEM

left the gate 8:10 AM CT · taxiing (scheduled 8:00 AM CT → 9:56 AM CT)

Your aircraft is N122HQ (E75S), coming in as YX 4600 from IND: landed 6:33 AM CT.

Forecast issued Mon 8:00 AM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MEM?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8am departures from ORD are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at MEM that day

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Cloud base down to 1,033 ft forecast at ORD that day

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling967 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MEM (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4518 · ORD → MEM

Odds over time

How late will it get to MEM?