YX 4520 · BOS → ROC

departs 9:55 PM ET · arrives 11:34 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 6:00 PM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at ROC more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to ROC?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 9pm departures from BOS are often late

↑ This flight has been late 24% of the time recently

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BOS

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

BOS (origin) Gusts25 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ROC (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling7,667 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4520 · BOS → ROC

Odds over time

How late will it get to ROC?