YX 4525 · ORD → MSN

departs 6:49 AM CT · arrives 7:55 AM CT

Your aircraft is N422YX (E75L), coming in as YX 4381 from GRR: landed 5:50 AM CT.

Forecast issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at MSN more than 15 minutes late?

54% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to MSN?

On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 22% of the time recently

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Arrivals into MSN at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MSN (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.06 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4525 · ORD → MSN

Odds over time

How late will it get to MSN?