YX 4530 · TUL → LGA

took off 1:51 PM CT · expected to land 5:38 PM ET (scheduled 1:43 PM CT → 6:08 PM ET)

Forecast issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to LGA?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 33 kt, 0.6 in of rain forecast at TUL that day

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↑ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

TUL (origin) Gusts28 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.79 in

LGA (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4530 · TUL → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?