YX 4531 · RDU → PIT

took off 8:22 AM ET · expected to land 9:19 AM ET (scheduled 7:37 AM ET → 9:17 AM ET)

Forecast issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at PIT more than 15 minutes late?

27% chance · ±0 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to PIT?

LIVE

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
25%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ RDU is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU

↓ Arrivals into PIT at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

RDU (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PIT (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling4,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4531 · RDU → PIT

Odds over time

How late will it get to PIT?