YX 4532 · PHL → SDF

departs 7:35 PM ET · arrives 9:49 PM ET

Your aircraft is N109HQ (E75S), coming in as YX 4699 from AUS: in the air, landing about 6:28 PM ET, 59 min before departure.

Forecast issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to SDF?

On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 7pm departures from PHL are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into SDF at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SDF (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.13 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4532 · PHL → SDF

Odds over time

How late will it get to SDF?