YX 4537 · ORD → SAT

took off 3:15 PM CT · expected to land 5:39 PM CT (scheduled 2:44 PM CT → 5:40 PM CT)

Forecast issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±0 pts +13 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SAT?

LIVE

On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 2pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↑ Arrivals into SAT at that hour are often late

↓ YX's recent on-time record

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.03 in

SAT (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4537 · ORD → SAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAT?