YX 4545 · TUL → ORD

departs 5:38 PM CT · arrives 7:52 PM CT

Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±0 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
14%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 28 kt, cloud base down to 900 ft, 0.7 in of rain forecast at TUL that day

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft forecast at ORD that day

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

TUL (origin) Gusts28 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.68 in

ORD (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4545 · TUL → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?