YX 4571 · ORD → GRR

took off 11:57 AM CT · expected to land 1:27 PM ET (scheduled 11:36 AM CT → 1:46 PM ET)

Forecast issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at GRR more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to GRR?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 11am departures from ORD are often late

↑ This flight has been late 20% of the time recently

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↓ YX's recent on-time record

↓ GRR usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling833 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

GRR (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4571 · ORD → GRR

Odds over time

How late will it get to GRR?