YX 4590 · LGA → CLE

took off 8:11 AM ET · expected to land 9:12 AM ET (scheduled 8:01 AM ET → 9:49 AM ET)

Forecast issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at CLE more than 15 minutes late?

0% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to CLE?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 27% of the time recently

↑ 8am departures from LGA are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

CLE (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4590 · LGA → CLE

Odds over time

How late will it get to CLE?