YX 4618 · JFK → BOS

took off 3:41 PM ET · expected to land 4:16 PM ET (scheduled 3:28 PM ET → 4:44 PM ET)

Forecast issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to BOS?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 3pm departures from JFK are often late

↑ Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 24% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BOS

Weather at each end

JFK (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BOS (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4618 · JFK → BOS

Odds over time

How late will it get to BOS?