YX 4652 · RDU → ORD

departs 4:27 PM ET · arrives 5:59 PM CT

Your aircraft is N439YX (E75L), coming in as YX 4394 from DCA: landed 2:34 PM ET.

Forecast issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

44% chance · ±0 pts −7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ 4pm departures from RDU are often late

↑ RDU is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

RDU (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

ORD (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4652 · RDU → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?