YX 4682 · ILM → LGA

took off 6:04 AM ET · expected to land 7:19 AM ET (scheduled 6:10 AM ET → 7:56 AM ET)

Forecast issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

0% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to LGA?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ ILM is prone to delays

↑ LGA is busy at that time

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

Weather at each end

ILM (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LGA (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4682 · ILM → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?