YX 4704 · LGA → RDU

departs 4:31 PM ET · arrives 6:20 PM ET

Your aircraft is N104HQ (E75S), coming in as YX 4417 from DCA: landed 3:44 PM ET.

Forecast issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?

63% chance · ±0 pts +41 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to RDU?

On time or early
37%
15–30 min late
49%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from LGA are often late

↑ This flight has been late 45% of the time recently

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

RDU (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4704 · LGA → RDU

Odds over time

How late will it get to RDU?