YX 4711 · DSM → ORD

departs 7:21 PM CT · arrives 8:58 PM CT

Forecast issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

51% chance · ±0 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
49%
15–30 min late
24%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 28 kt, cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.6 in of rain forecast at DSM that day

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ 7pm departures from DSM are often late

↓ DSM usually runs smoothly

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DSM (origin) Gusts28 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.55 in

ORD (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4711 · DSM → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?