YX 4745 · ORD → MCI

took off 1:53 PM CT · expected to land 2:53 PM CT (scheduled 1:18 PM CT → 2:59 PM CT)

Forecast issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?

8% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to MCI?

LIVE

On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 28 kt, cloud base down to 900 ft, 0.6 in of rain forecast at MCI that day

↑ 1pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↓ MCI usually runs smoothly

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MCI (destination) Gusts32 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.45 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4745 · ORD → MCI

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCI?