YX 4759 · ORF → JFK

took off 2:53 PM ET · expected to land 3:35 PM ET (scheduled 2:39 PM ET → 4:08 PM ET)

Forecast issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to JFK?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ ORF is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into JFK at that hour are often late

↑ JFK is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORF

Weather at each end

ORF (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

JFK (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4759 · ORF → JFK

Odds over time

How late will it get to JFK?