YX 4761 · LGA → RDU

took off 11:47 AM ET · landed 12:58 PM ET (scheduled 11:29 AM ET → 1:19 PM ET)

Forecast issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to RDU?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 11am departures from LGA are often late

↑ This flight has been late 32% of the time recently

↑ LGA is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

RDU (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4761 · LGA → RDU

Odds over time

How late did it get to RDU?