YX 4770 · ORD → CMH

took off 12:27 PM CT · expected to land 2:14 PM ET (scheduled 11:40 AM CT → 2:10 PM ET)

Forecast issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at CMH more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to CMH?

LIVE

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
30%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 11am departures from ORD are often late

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↑ This flight has been late 19% of the time recently

↓ CMH usually runs smoothly

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

CMH (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4770 · ORD → CMH

Odds over time

How late will it get to CMH?