YX 4780 · ORD → BUF

took off 8:20 AM CT · expected to land 10:27 AM ET (scheduled 8:12 AM CT → 11:05 AM ET)

Forecast issued Mon 8:00 AM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?

0% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to BUF?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8am departures from ORD are often late

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↑ This flight has been late 22% of the time recently

↓ YX's recent on-time record

↓ BUF usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling967 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BUF (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling6,667 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4780 · ORD → BUF

Odds over time

How late will it get to BUF?