AA 1981 · PHX → AUS

departs 9:55 AM MT · arrives 1:26 PM CT

Forecast issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 16h before departure

Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to AUS?

On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft, 0.6 in of rain forecast at AUS that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 27% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

AUS (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.61 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1981 · PHX → AUS

Odds over time

How late will it get to AUS?