AA 2202 · ORD → BUF

departs 3:14 PM CT · arrives 5:56 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 6:00 AM ET · 10h before departure

Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?

53% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BUF?

On time or early
47%
15–30 min late
25%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
21%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 3pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ This flight has been late 34% of the time recently

↓ Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BUF

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts28 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility6.33333 mi Precip0.12 in

BUF (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling3,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2202 · ORD → BUF

Odds over time

How late will it get to BUF?